Thursday, April 01, 2004

The next big* muslim attack is going to be in europe and against a jewish target

here is something I found thro europundits

an analysis of the european situation after Iraq and Yassin

I don't agree that europe can not sit on the side lines . I think they think they can , mostly because they think that the War on Terrorism is an american invention and that the moment the americans grow tired of it and leave it would all go back to business as usual. And partly because they think ( and they are probably right in that) that they have something to offer the arabs , their jews.

What I found interesting was the suggestion of an attack in europe by Hamas in order to put european pressure on Israel. This has two (to me) obvious flows . First the assumption that muslim/arab terrorism has political aims , that it is a kind of diplomacy by force , it's not , or at least that is not its primary purpose (but that deserve an analysis of it's own) . Secondly europe has very little actual power over Israel , most of it is economical power (the EU is Israel's main trading partner ) and I don't think the various EU members would sacrifice money for politics .
But they do have something to offer the arabs and that's more than a million jews living in the EU . If they can make sure that muslim attacks in europe are directed against the jews and not the general population they'll take that deal since in their minds the yankees will go home long before they run out of jews to throw to the muslim wolves.

So as I see it the next succesful big attack would be in europe against a jewish target and it would be successful becuase the various european authorities would "neglect" to pay attention to threats which are specificly directed at jews while concentrating what little powers they have on protecting the population as a whole . Or thats how they'll explain it if anyone ever catches on to that.



* by big I mean more than 50 dead

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